New record year?
Preparing the downturn?
The US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has revised its predictions with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% through to 2007. This year is expected to be above average at 28.6% resulting in world IC sales of $214bn. This beats the $204bn sales of the previous record year, 2000. Next year, growth is expected to be 4.2% and in 2006 sales are expected to fall by 0.8%. The year 2007 is expected to show a rebound to 11.7% growth with sales reaching $250bn.
"While this [compound] growth rate is lower than the historical growth rate of the past several decades, it represents very healthy growth for a $200bn-plus industry," comments SIA president George Scalise.
Regional market share for IC consumption is expected to reflect further moves to Asia Pacific, going from 40% now to 43% by 2007. The Americas is expected to lose share, going from 19% to 17%. Europe is expected to have a steady 20% share over the period. Japan is also forecast to maintain its IC consumption at 22%.
Buoyant chip sales forecasts in 2004 and warnings of slower growth next year will probably negatively impact chip equipment sales this year, according to the Information Network.
"Negative sentiment from analysts and forecasts of a relatively flat 2005 from the SIA are pointing to eventual pushouts and cancellations of equipment," says Dr Robert Castellano, president of the market research organisation.
In a forecast issued in Novermber 2003, the Information Network put 2004's front-end equipment sales growth at 21.0%. The firm is looking at its figures as a result of recent IC sales forecasts. The Information Network says that it anticipates that orders will decelerate quickly towards the end of the year.
